Free Educational Tool

What If You Could
See Around Corners?

Compare a traditional retirement allocation to a tactical alternative — using 20 years of real market data. See what disciplined risk management would have meant for a portfolio like yours.

All results are hypothetical and backtested. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.

Meet Bill

Before you explore this tool: Everything you're about to see is based on hypothetical, backtested analysis — not real trades in a real account. Backtesting works backward from known outcomes, which means it has a built-in advantage: hindsight. No one achieved these results, and no one is guaranteed to. These numbers are a model, not a track record. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this page.

The Question

The Strategy That Built Your Wealth
May Not Protect It

If you're within ten years of retirement, you've probably noticed something uncomfortable: your "safe" allocation didn't feel very safe during the last two crashes. And the growth you need for a 30-year retirement is being dampened by a bond-heavy glide path.

Meet Bill

Bill is a fictional investor, but his situation will feel familiar. He's 60, self-directed, and has done a solid job saving. His 401(k) is in a 2030 Target Date Fund — the kind of set-it-and-forget-it allocation that felt smart a decade ago.

But with retirement visible on the horizon, Bill noticed two things. First, his fund's growth had slowed considerably — the bond-heavy allocation was dampening the growth he'd need for a 25-to-30-year retirement. Second, when the market actually crashed, his "safe" fund still took a significant hit.

Bill started wondering: Is there a way to stay in the growth lane and still have a plan for getting out of the way when things go sideways?

Bill is here to make the data relatable. He's not a real person, and his "results" are a hypothetical model — not an experience anyone actually had.

The Hypothetical Comparison

Two Philosophies. Twenty Years. Side by Side.

Using the Portfolio Analysis Tool, Bill ran a 20-year comparison (2005–2025) of two approaches: a traditional 60/40 Target Date Fund that stays fully invested at all times, and a tactical model that uses a data-driven indicator to shift between growth positions and cash.

About this data: The WavRyder Market-Strength Indicator was developed using historical data that overlaps with this backtest (in-sample testing). The model's parameters were shaped by the very conditions being evaluated. This introduces the risk of overfitting — the model may be tuned to patterns that don't repeat. Future performance may differ meaningfully.

Metric	Target Date Fund	WavRyder-Signal Tactical Model*
Starting Investment	$100,000	$100,000
Ending Value (20yr)	$390K	$833K
Total Growth	+289.6%	+732.6%
Worst Annual Drawdown	-32.91%	-9.03%
20-Year CAGR	7.04%	11.18%

*Hypothetical backtested results. 80% QQQ / 20% SPY with WavRyder signal-driven shifts to cash. Based on historical ETF prices (which include fund expense ratios). Does not reflect brokerage commissions, advisory fees, taxes, or other real-world costs. Past hypothetical performance does not predict future results.

The Insight

The Math of Recovery Changes Everything

The most striking number isn't the growth — it's the drawdown. Bill's "safe" fund dropped 32.91% in its worst year. The tactical model's worst year was -9.03%. Why does this matter so much?

A 33% loss requires a 50% gain just to break even. A 9% loss requires only a 10% gain. While the Target Date Fund spent years clawing back after crashes, the tactical model was already compounding new highs. Defense became offense.

Bill didn't walk away with a conclusion — he walked away with a question he hadn't been asking: had he been thinking about risk the right way?

Run Your Own Comparison — See What the Data Shows

Free. No login. Everything runs in your browser. Hypothetical backtested data only.

How the Tool Works

Build Your Own Comparison in Three Steps

Choose Your Allocations

Select a "Current" portfolio (like a Target Date Fund or 60/40 blend) and a "Modeled" alternative from multiple WavRyder-adjusted options.

See 20 Years of Data

The tool calculates growth, drawdowns, CAGR, and risk metrics using real historical market data from 2005–2025. Charts and tables update instantly.

Explore Scenarios

Load pre-built scenario comparisons or build your own custom blend. Try conservative, moderate, or aggressive tactical models.

What the Tool Shows You

Six Ways to Explore the Data

📈

20-Year Growth Chart

Visual comparison of two portfolio trajectories from $100K starting point. See exactly when and where the paths diverge.

📊

Rolling CAGR Comparison

5-year, 10-year, 15-year, and 20-year compound annual growth rates for each approach, side by side.

🛡️

Drawdown Analysis

Worst annual losses for each portfolio. See how tactical risk management limited exposure during 2008 and 2022.

⚙️

Multiple Portfolio Models

Choose from Target Date, 60/40, S&P 500, QQQ, and multiple WavRyder-adjusted tactical models with varying risk profiles.

🎯

Pre-Built Scenarios

One-click scenario buttons load common comparisons — conservative vs. tactical, traditional vs. growth-oriented, and more.

🖨️

Print / Save as PDF

Export your comparison for review. Share it with your advisor, your spouse, or keep it for your own records.

Who This Tool Is For

You've Been Investing for Decades.
This Helps You Ask Better Questions.

If you're a self-directed investor approaching retirement — or recently into it — and you've ever wondered whether your current allocation has enough runway, this tool lets you explore that question with real data. Not opinions. Not predictions. Twenty years of market history, applied to the specific comparison you choose.

It won't tell you what to do. It will show you what would have happened — and let you decide what that means for your future.

Full Disclosures

Please Read This Before Using the Tool

Hypothetical and Backtested Results: Everything in this tool is based on hypothetical, backtested analysis — not real trades in a real account. Backtesting works backward from known outcomes. No one achieved these results, and no one is guaranteed to. These numbers are a model, not a track record.

In-Sample Testing: The WavRyder Market-Strength Indicator was developed using historical market data that overlaps with the data in this backtest. The model's parameters were shaped by the very conditions being evaluated. This introduces the risk of overfitting: the model may be tuned to patterns that don't repeat.

Investment Risk: All investing involves risk, including the real possibility of losing money. Different strategies carry different risk profiles. The tactical approach involves frequent moves between equities and cash, which requires comfort with market-timing decisions and may not align with every investor's goals.

No Guarantees: Past performance — whether real or hypothetical — does not predict the future. Markets evolve. Conditions change. What worked from 2005 to 2025 may not work from 2025 to 2045. The backtested numbers do not reflect brokerage commissions, advisory fees, taxes, or other real-world costs that would reduce actual returns.

What Happens Next

The Tool Is Step One.
The Subscription Is Where It Comes Alive.

This tool shows you what disciplined risk management would have looked like over 20 years. The WavRyder subscription delivers the same signal — every market day, to your inbox — so you can apply that discipline going forward.

Explore the data first. If the approach resonates, the subscription is there when you're ready.

Explore the Data Yourself

Free. No login. No data stored. Build your own 20-year comparison using real market history.

See What the Data Shows

Educational tool using hypothetical backtested data. Not a prediction of future performance. Not investment advice.

Portfolio Analysis Tool

Compare portfolio strategies using 20 years of historical market data. All results are hypothetical and backtested.

What If You CouldSee Around Corners?

The Strategy That Built Your WealthMay Not Protect It